Their schedule is incredibly soft. I know some have watched them and think they will be decent, but your analysis seems to indicate otherwise. I think we win even if we start our 5th string QB. At the rate we are losing QBs, that isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Squeak by a couple really poor G5 teams, crush a terrible UMASS team and then a couple FCS/ IAA teams. Not much of a resume there.