I like that model much more then others

Mar 27, 2020
5:10:22pm

byukarl All-American

Hopefully, that is what happens.

Do you know if this model takes into account the extremely long time it takes for people to shake it completely? I've heard
it can take 21 days sometimes which could gobble up the beds.

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byukarl

Bio page: byukarl
Joined: Apr 15, 2003
Last login: Jun 9, 2024
Total posts: 28,062 (695 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

This is a more realistic model than previous dire ones

CSoul

3/27/20 4:58pm

Maybe herd immunity is already in full force. I hope this is true out of Oxford:

Virginia Ute

3/27/20 4:59pm

The current trajectory I am seeing is we will hit peak in a week

CSoul

3/27/20 5:01pm

Or suggest that this virus mutated to a more lethal form.

IGlowInTheDark

3/27/20 5:05pm

Dun dun dun

CSoul

3/27/20 5:06pm

It may mutate slowly, but when it does...badness happens.

IGlowInTheDark

3/27/20 5:15pm

That would be easy to prove

CallingDingo

3/27/20 5:12pm

That is what they are doing

CSoul

3/27/20 5:13pm

If these Oxford studies are correct and it's so widespread, why do so few test

mannheimadler

3/27/20 5:13pm

They could have been counted as flu deaths or mostly carried by the young

CSoul

3/27/20 5:15pm

I thought many of the current tests are to see if you currently have it

webster242

3/27/20 5:25pm

Positive tests are for coronavirus, not antibodies.

Harbinger

3/27/20 5:26pm

This. If you had it and didn’t have symptoms or did and are better, you’re not going to get the test to begin with, and

Virginia Ute

3/27/20 6:46pm

The study makes no such claim

bythenumbers

3/27/20 5:34pm

What do you mean by "testing we are seeing" nobody is currently being tested

Lance71

3/27/20 6:15pm

Not true

bythenumbers

3/27/20 8:21pm

Dr. Birx said yesterday that to date the virus has not had an attack rate above

Bostonblue

3/27/20 7:55pm

Seems like it will be more spread out though no?

Josef K

3/27/20 5:06pm

NY and Michigan peak will be the U.S. peak

CSoul

3/27/20 5:07pm

even with large metros like LA and SF lagging only a little behind?

Josef K

3/27/20 5:09pm

The United States is a less homogenous population than any in the world

CSoul

3/27/20 5:11pm

We know you are really hoping for it to be bad.

BYU '80

3/27/20 7:00pm

I'm convinced that we are going to be stuck in restrictions longer than

wabluecoug

3/27/20 5:08pm

I like that model much more then others

byukarl

3/27/20 5:10pm

Yes it does, you can read the methods linked from it.

CSoul

3/27/20 5:11pm

What do you think about this as a way to potentially get us back to work?

ReyOso

3/27/20 5:13pm

What stops the virus from spiking again when we lift restrictions? Aren't we

mannheimadler

3/27/20 5:14pm

There would be a large number of people that are immune for whatever time

CSoul

3/27/20 5:19pm

The state by state projections are what matter most. That’s why I like this site.

YIsForBrigham

3/27/20 5:24pm

I came across this today as well

bythenumbers

3/27/20 5:35pm

Even in that model, NY is screwed.

benny1982

3/27/20 5:40pm

Sweden’s numbers will probably show first.

PorterRockwell

3/27/20 5:57pm

how accurate can this really be? china's been at 3,200 or so deaths for a long t

bald man

3/27/20 6:01pm

China lies...

Harbinger

3/27/20 6:07pm

that is what say, maybe even hope, but the truth is we don't know.

bald man

3/27/20 6:41pm

Sure we do. They haven't had a new case in quite a few days.

Harbinger

3/27/20 6:44pm

Assumptions does not equate knowledge and proof. I believe they are lying.

bald man

3/27/20 6:53pm

His model is already over projecting deaths by 15% a day.

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