It will go away this summer before we have a vaccine.

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Apr 1, 2020
2:47:49pm

Joe Banks All-American

The issue is whether a vaccine plus herd immunity plus massive testing will stop a pandemic next year.

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Joe Banks

Previous username: Paco
Bio page: Joe Banks
Joined: Feb 7, 2002
Last login: May 28, 2024
Total posts: 18,717 (42 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

660 dead so far today. Guessing we will see 1100+ pass away today. If so, that

jkccoug

4/1/20 2:24pm

Are you saying the rate of deaths reported during the day are uniformly distributed?

Indy Coug

4/1/20 2:25pm

No. I have been checking at 2:30 every day for 2 weeks or so. Generally the

jkccoug

4/1/20 2:27pm

It doesn't work that way, there are only a few states that report

CSoul

4/1/20 2:28pm

I have the data. I'm only telling you what it says. It varies some but

jkccoug

4/1/20 2:32pm

I would suspect a lot of Western States report later in the day

coolcats

4/1/20 2:36pm

Running the numbers of average historical deaths to actual 2020 dead ...

Joe Banks

4/1/20 2:28pm

WA state seeing flood of new cases: not reported yet. See link below

flyzag

4/1/20 2:34pm

Might not be as scary as it seems, from the article

Busiturtle

4/1/20 2:38pm

Absolutely. But let's not forget, just because we test negative today doesn't

flyzag

4/1/20 2:44pm

It will go away this summer before we have a vaccine.

Joe Banks

4/1/20 2:47pm

I wish I had your optimism.

flyzag

4/1/20 4:27pm

Here is a leading forecast that basically says exactly that.

Joe Banks

4/1/20 4:37pm

On the other end: Michael Osterholm stated again yesterday that he projects

flyzag

4/1/20 4:41pm

Models expect 2600 in 2 weeks

CallingDingo

4/1/20 4:45pm

I'm not sure if it will take that long or not. If it does we should be happy

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