Interesting thing is you hear so much about how contagious it is

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Apr 2, 2020
11:06:42am

bluelands All-American

Interesting thing is you hear so much about how contagious it is

Yet her companion (still sharing the same room) has showed no symptoms. Could be she is simply asymptomatic. Who knows?

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bluelands

Bio page: bluelands
Joined: Aug 16, 2002
Last login: May 5, 2023
Total posts: 52,694 (564 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

The rate of the increase in daily new cases in the US is decreasing

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

4/2/20 10:43am

Nice work, everyone! Social distancing FTW.

SandYFan

4/2/20 10:44am

How much longer will the economy be shut down?

boogers

4/2/20 11:03am

No one knows!

SandYFan

4/2/20 11:08am

When do YOU think it should open up?

boogers

4/2/20 11:15am

Ummmmmmmmmmmm,

4/2/20 11:30am

Don't share good news or hope on here. Shame.

Benfica1

4/2/20 10:45am

Almost all cases they are seeing now have had symptoms

travelcoug

4/2/20 10:45am

My daughter is on day 10 of her fever and cough

bluelands

4/2/20 10:54am

So sorry to hear. Best wishes for her recovery.

4/2/20 11:02am

Interesting thing is you hear so much about how contagious it is

bluelands

4/2/20 11:06am

Get this now

travelcoug

4/2/20 11:20am

Thanks for posting good news

johnnybyu

4/2/20 10:49am

maybe but the graph is total cases.

TomPetty

4/2/20 10:50am

Epidemic growth is measured by exponential growth. That's a function of the rate of growth

Indy Coug

4/2/20 10:54am

Exactly and the time it takes to get to zero growth matters

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:00am

Right but everyone has been talking about flattening the curve, that's the most

4/2/20 11:02am

This thread is the perfect example how people don't understand what

CSoul

4/2/20 11:05am

Wow, I’m a 1 percenter!

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:12am

I'm not smart with this stuff. So are you saying this is a positive sign graph

Baseball77

4/2/20 11:14am

A 40% daily growth rate would basically make the number of cases double in two days

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:17am

The question is the timing of the limiting rate of growth.

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:14am

Right, and I think the chart shows there is showing a fairly rapid drop in that rate right now

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:16am

Fair enough and certainly good news

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:17am

CSoul is so smart.

Benfica1

4/2/20 11:16am

Way smarter than most and doing good work

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:18am

Nah.

Benfica1

4/2/20 11:24am

I’ll bet you $1,000 his IQ is more than 1 SD

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:26am

What is the rate of doubling of deaths?

Archaea

4/2/20 10:53am

Misleading to show % growth in TOTAL cases. Law of large numbers.

beantownblue

4/2/20 10:53am

The law of large numbers would apply to something like the mortality rate

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:00am

which uses total cases as its denomenator, does it not? But in any event, the rate of change is useful info

Bob Vance

4/2/20 11:18am

how does that compare to the number of new tests?

Littlerich

4/2/20 11:00am

You should use a three day rolling average, call it Social Defensive Efficiency

4/2/20 11:04am

That'll smooth it but it really doesn't alter the slope very much

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:06am

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