I'd rather take the guaranteed "never work again" over a 50% chance

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Oct 27, 2020
2:23:02pm

Styro Enlightened One

The amount after that is relatively meaningless to me. My goal is to not have to work, not to buy myself a super-yacht.

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Styro

Bio page: Styro
Joined: Sep 15, 2008
Last login: Jun 5, 2024
Total posts: 950 (10 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

POLL: Follow up, since the result is clear. Which of these choices would you make?

CSoul Intervention Needed

10/27/20 2:00pm

I mean, I knew Cougarboard was conservative, but there is a surprising lack of risk takers it appears

CSoul

10/27/20 2:04pm

Invest that 3 million and never have to worry again. I'll take that over a possible 25 million.

byuluvr

10/27/20 2:05pm

Oh, I know why people are picking it.

CSoul

10/27/20 2:07pm

BYU fans. We're accustomed to having hopes dashed.

Byron McNertney

10/27/20 2:07pm

For me there's no difference between $3 million and $100 million.

CopperLix

10/27/20 2:05pm

There isn't a lot of difference between 3 million and 20. There is a lot between 3 and 100.

CSoul

10/27/20 2:06pm

This is probably true...except that $3 mil is still a lot of money and people

m0resn0w

10/27/20 2:09pm

I think a lot of entrepreneurs make this kind of choice all the time, they just don't know they are

CSoul

10/27/20 2:12pm

I don't have enough imagination or connections to truly understand what the difference actually means to me.

supertux

10/27/20 2:12pm

You would find it soon enough. But really, the 100 million is an amount you can start changing

CSoul

10/27/20 2:14pm

$100 million to me is the threshold for uber wealthy.

YIsForBrigham

10/27/20 2:19pm

You would find a difference once you started spending some of the 3

YIsForBrigham

10/27/20 2:11pm

The difference isn't likely to be felt by most of us individually. But the difference generationally is huge. You can be

unctoothman

10/27/20 2:57pm

On one hand you have to manage your investments carefully to avoid running out.

Ash

10/27/20 6:50pm

There is no "chance" option I'd take over the $3 million now option.

timpjynx

10/27/20 2:08pm

How low would the dollar option now need to be to take one of the other options?

CSoul

10/27/20 2:08pm

I could make due with $1 million now... Less than that, maybe I'd take a chance.

timpjynx

10/27/20 2:11pm

IOW, how much would you be willing to pay in order to have a chance at winning a large amount of money?

Smack'sWife

10/27/20 10:20pm

CB members are smart with money and not actually as rich as they say or appear

newbie

10/27/20 2:10pm

If you change the first option to $1 million, then my answer changes to second

Mikey

10/27/20 2:10pm

This sounds like a Tversky/Kahneman study, interesting results -

ConnCoug

10/27/20 2:11pm

This is a big deal. Is it taxable?

gurt

10/27/20 2:11pm

Yes, each of those are taxed

CSoul

10/27/20 2:14pm

Why are all the 'chance' options in 3 years? Is that critical to the question? I

Salami Karate

10/27/20 2:12pm

When is the uncertainty resolved? Now or in 3 years? That moves the needle, but

Coach's Dad

10/27/20 2:13pm

I always screw up these decision tree problems.

WDaddy

10/27/20 2:17pm

How a 50/50 shot at $100 million with no work or risk isn't the obvious choice is beyond me

YIsForBrigham

10/27/20 2:19pm

I'd rather take the guaranteed "never work again" over a 50% chance

Styro

10/27/20 2:23pm

I dont think $3million is never work again money but I guess if it is to you that makes sense

YIsForBrigham

10/27/20 2:24pm

$3 million even doing an ultra conservative 3% rule would generate $90k/year

BYUFootballisBack

10/27/20 2:37pm

Here are my calculations

Styro

10/27/20 2:43pm

And thats if you choose to never touch the actual $3 million, if you wanted you

BYUFootballisBack

10/27/20 3:16pm

Is this just extra money? or is this my job? If I may not make ANY money in 3

fattycoug

10/27/20 2:22pm

It's on top of whatever else you are doing. Good distinction.

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