Looking at 14,136 FBS games, the team with a higher TOP won 9,129 of them. 64.5%. Hardly correlated.
If you take out garbage time, that bumps to 9,237.
To proxy teams with a lead running out the clock, if you remove the 4th quarter from everything and only look at drives in the first 3Qs - 8,233 games the team with a higher TOP won - just 58% of the time.