when their current TV contract expires.

If either Texas or the OU/OSU combo should leave, the Big 12 would raid G5 conferences for the replacements and suffer the same fate as the BE/AAC.

The CFP contract is up for renewal, around that time, and it's feasible the other P5 would just push them to a G5 status.

Even if ESPN doesn't throw $7B at them for the next round, the P4 would likely make the same money.

Not only would they split their share four ways instead of five, they would probably increase that share from the current 71.5% to a greater amount - 80% or higher. The G5 aren't to stand in the way.

It's a scenario that is easy to envision.