After a 10 year expansion your 1-2 year guess isn't unreasonable.
I know if I went and researched though I can find several posters with dire warnings over the last couple of years.
Oh, not only can they not exactly call a downturn, they won't be able to accurately call the subsequent upturn.
Anyone can get lucky once in a while.
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=4443983