It discounts and understates the losses to Toledo and South Florida too quickly. Probably a win below most conference predictions.

For instance, we would likely be a middle of the PAC team, but likely not second place in the division. While we beat USC, I don't see us finishing better than 5-4 with a PAC 12 schedule.

And, while we knocked of Boise and USU, the Toledo and South Florida games show that would could easily drop a game or two to the likes of Wyoming and Nevada. So, still in contention for the MWC championship, but not a "likely" champion.