is where you get to the 1.62 number. The first was a full-count to a lead off hitter, so you get a baserunner instead on an out. The run expectancy with a runner on first and no outs is very different than no runners on and one out.

The second most significant was the same (full count) but with one out, so not nearly as big of a deal but still significant because it was the difference between a baserunner and an out.

The third most significant was the first pitch of an AB but with the bases loaded and 2 outs. Go look at the difference on likely outcomes for an 0-1 count compared to a 1-0 count and you can see how substantial that is because the likelihood of scoring (and scoring multiple runs) drops significantly with that call.