If all the autobid conf champions were in the top 12, then all the top 12 would go to NY6.
If one if below top 12, then the top 11 will go + that team. We would need to be 11 or better
If two autobid champs are below top 12 then top 10 + 2 would go to NY6 bowl. We would need to be 10 or better.
Oregon/Utah and Pitt/Wake don't matter.
What matters is passing a non-auto qualifier ahead of us.
Baylor is that team that can lose and drop.
But there's almost no chance they will drop from 9 to below BYU.
The last few years the underdog loser of Conf Champ drops 1 spot max.