So Fiesta and Peach are hosting the College Football playoff semifinals this year and will take the teams ranked #1-4

Rose Bowl will take the Champion (or best available) Big 10 vs Pac 12 teams that are NOT ranked #1-4
Sugar Bowl will take the Champion (or best available) Big12 vs SEC teams that are NOT ranked #1-4
Orange Bowl will take the Champion (or best available) ACC team, and match them against the now best available Notre Dame, Big10, Big 12 team.
So the only bowl to take At-Large teams is the Cotton Bowl, and they are forced to take the G5 champion as well.

So come season end,
CFP will likely take 2 SEC teams, 1 Big 10 team, and 1 other team (Likely best out of ACC Champ or B12 Champ).
Then the gurantee bowls will take the #3 SEC team, the #2B10 team, ND or #3 B10 team, ACC Champ, Big 12 Champ, Pac 12 Champ, G5 Champ, and 1 at large.

So BYU needs to be ranked higher than (ND+Big10)/SEC #4 teams, and every other non-CFP participating conferences #2 team to make the Cotton Bowl.

Example:
Clemson Ranks #5
NC State Ranks #6
BYU Ranks #7 . . . in this situation BYU would play in a bottom tier bowl game. 🙁


TL;DR, With only 1 At-LArge NY6 bowl bid, and unnecessarily complicated bowl tie-ins associated, there is a good chance that if BYU finishes #9 or higher that they will not make a NY6 bowl. Very little room for error this year unlike last year.