BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are not in a position of power
If the PAC stabilizes and is able to convince Kansas that the grass is greener, then Oklahoma State, TCU, and others will also get wandering eyes.
BYU could join the Big 12 just to see half the conference bolt.
I would give it a 25% chance that BYU joins a Big 12 without Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas Tech.
The Big 12's position in all of this is significantly overstated on CB.