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May 27, 2023
CougarCanuck76 Truly Addicted User
SDSU has pushed all their chips into a PAC invite and I think they'll get it
Yes the academic prestige of the PAC along with close travel are significant factors, but they are acting as if they are coming from a position of strength. However, that hubris may get them right back where they started. Have they forgotten the Big East already?

I feel pretty confident in saying Colorado will make a move to the Big12 soon. Too many trusted, reliable, unbiased sources are echoing this sentinment. So let's say they announce that move next week. I think the PAC turns around and immediately adds SDSU to the PAC and SDSU gets to live out their wildest fantasies! The PAC gets to slice up SDSU's media payout to disperse amongst the rest of the league. More money for everyone else and everyone's happy. Good riddance, Colorado!

However this just isn't reality. It's an interesting dilemma for the PAC because they don't have a pro-rata to accomodate the addition of a MWC school let alone any media deal. They have no mechanism to lock in SDSU. There's no GOR. They would have to convince their media parnters, in the middle of their negotiation, to disregard losing their largest dedicated MTZ DMA in Denver (PHX is Pacific in my scenario), and be OK taking a school with a much smaller following that just happens to be located in San Diego. Now say what you will about Colorado, but they do have a significant fan following with P5 facilities and stadium. They sold out their Spring Game for crying out loud. SDSU couldn't even sell out their brand new stadium once in it's innagural season. And now the PAC becomes even more regional with, outside of Utah, just one timezone that can be consistently delivered.

Now the PAC was hoping they could take that ~$25M payout share for SDSU and carve it out for the rest. Media partners will scoff at the notion they should pay the same rates for SDSU that they were planning to pay for Colorado. That deal negotiaton will only go lower. But even if SDSU got a full share, and sliced off $10M for the rest of the schools. That's another $1-2M per school maybe? Game changer? Not even close.

Then you are under the constant threat of schools leaving your new conference. If Colorado leaves I don't think it takes long for Arizona to follow. And if that happens I don't think it will take long for ASU to also follow. As the sive continues to open up and the conference valuation continues to drop.

A few more weeks/months go by...

And now the looming B1G elephant in the room. There's still OR/WA and even the possibility of ST/CAL getting snagged by the B1G. But let's say the B1G doesn't act to take any schools. What do these schools do in this dwindling conference? By that point any likely media partners may have shriveled away leaving their deal numbers getting closer to a MWC payout than a Big12 payout. In fact at that point these schools may start considering independence and OR/WA may consider the Big12.

Couldn't the PAC just add a few MWC schools to get back their numbers? By the time this all unfolds we're likely past July 1st. If the PAC tries to add MWC schools the buyout doubles (some are even saying triples) if they want to get them in time to backfill for 2024-25.What about AAC? Nope they're also 3 x $18M. What about Rice in Conf USA? If we're down to Rice then what are we doing here? So the PAC may not have options to fill a minimum requirement of members (6).

And at that point the MWC is the one that has leverage to snag schools that don't go independent/B12. WSU, OSU, Utah are all candidates to be absorbed by the new Mountain-PAC conference.

And that leaves SDSU, left paying a $16 buyout to join a conference that may no longer exist. The Big East all over again. Did they not learn?
This message has been modified
Originally posted on May 27, 2023 at 1:05:14pm
Message modified by CougarCanuck76 on May 27, 2023 at 1:08:12pm
Message modified by CougarCanuck76 on May 27, 2023 at 1:10:00pm
Message modified by CougarCanuck76 on May 27, 2023 at 1:13:49pm
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