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Mar 3, 2024
7:08:45am
Skeeziks All-American
Big 12 Standings Probabilities - and BYU Big 12 Tourney Seeding
With 2 games left, here are probabilities of where teams will be at the end of the regular season.

Standings.png

BYU has over a 90% chance to finish the regular season in 5th or better in the standings. Well done, Cougars!

Chart below outlines their probabilities of where they end in standings depending on the total number of victories end of year.

Wins.png

If they lost both their remaining games, likely to be 6th or 7th - but that is unlikely and I don't want to dwell on the negative.

Scenarios if BYU wins Last 2 Games:

If they win their last 2 games then they will be either 3rd or 4th.

In that scenario there is a 63% chance they would be 3rd (18% overall chance of that). Most likely they would be tied for third (only 4% of the time in that scenario would they have sole possession of 3rd place).

If they ended up 4th, more than likely it would be alone - with only a 5% chance in that scenario of being tied.

Win-Out-Probability.png

For reference, here are records against top teams for the teams that will be vying for the 3rd spot.

Opponent-Record.png

Here are the scenarios if BYU wins out - who they would be tied with and how tie breakers would work. If they win out there is still a 35% chance that they will have the 5 seed. 5 seed is worst case scenario if they win out.

Seeding-BYU-Win-Out.png

Later I'll look at scenarios if BYU goes 1-1, but need to get ready for church. 🙂
Skeeziks
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Skeeziks
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