I feel kind of meh about joining a conference if it comes to Top 10 qualifies for a BCS bowl. In reality, I think it will go to a 4 or 8 team playoff with bowls signing contracts with conferences eliminating the BCS selection of qualified teams in favor of regional conference champion match ups (like the Rose bowl). If the post season is restructured to a playoff the futuristic problem that arises for BYU is that big time bowls, that might be formerly known as the BCS bowls, will be impossible to get into due to lack of conference affiliation. I just don't see any big time bowl having a BYU clause, while I definitely see the Holiday bowl making a BYU clause I don't consider the Holiday bowl to be big time.
The gamble is waiting to see what will happen with the post season restructuring. BYU's position of power is based on the outcome of the post-season restructuring and the power changes dramatically depending on the outcome. If the post season changes to a top 10 BCS qualifier or an 8 team playoff, then Indy is a very powerful place to be. In fact I would love indy if the post season was top 10 BCS or 8 team playoff and BYU had a default of bowls that ranged from Holiday to the LV depending on the year.
However, if the system goes to top 4 and bowls formerly known as BCS bowls sign specific contracts with conferences BYU is in a dangerous place and really should be desperate to get into a conference.
That is how I see it, please let me know what you think is right or wrong with this assessment.