He's still far too young to write off his chances of breaking Nicklaus' record. I do agree that he'll never be the same Tiger that he was before--too many good, young golfers that won't be intimidated by him. But his record at the Masters is so good that I expect him to contend there for another 10 years. And he has also played the British Open very, very well. Think about it--let's give him 8-10 more years. All he has to do is win 1 major every other year and he'll break Jack's record.
That is VERY doable, considering his track record.