When we play P5/BCS/Major Conference and Independent teams away from Provo since 1972
vs. 8 win teams or better BYU is 8-34-1
vs. 4-7 win teams BYU is 16-16
vs. 0-3 win teams BYU is 9-4
Losses to teams like Michigan or UCLA (assuming UCLA doesn't lose all of their remaining games) are almost a lock. Losses to teams like Missouri are a 50-50 chance historically.