Besides QB Blake Bortles, RB Storm Johnson, and WR Jeff Godfrey they are losing most of their offensive line (2 guards and 1 tackle). They are returning a lot on D, but their D wasn't that great. And just losing 3 of your top playmakers on offense will most likely make you take a step back, especially considering the razor thin margins they won with last year.
I suppose your point is that "you never know until you know" and maybe the next guy up is also a first round NFL pick, and the next RB is also NFL caliber, and the guys coming in on the OL are able to preform to the level of the Sr's that left. And I suppose you might turn out to be right. But from where I'm sitting, we have proven talent coming back. We have the first year of our brand new offense behind us. BYU is going to be tough for anyone to beat next year.