Here's my reasoning for putting UCF first, but we're really splitting hairs there: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=12688706

I think you're giving Houston too much credit, and here's why: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=12689135

I also think you're giving Utah State too much credit. Last year was not close, although you could argue that was due to the loss of Chuckie Keeton. But this game will be at home, BSU is on the always-challenging smurf turf. We own USU historically, and they don't have Gary Anderson anymore, who was the only reason 2011/2012 were close games. BSU will be hurting without Chris Petersen, but their best years were with Harsin as OC, and they brought Harsin back as OC. Boise also had an uncharacteristic amount of TOs that game (4), while we had none, and I'm not sure we can replicate that. Furthermore, Boise had just lost their starting QB to injury the game before, I don't think enough of us remember that.

We only struggled with Nevada because our team had so many injuries by the end of the season it was ridiculous. Really? UNLV over Virginia and Cal? UNLV is at the bottom of the MWC, at least Virginia and Cal are at the bottom of real conferences. Plus Cal is away, UNLV is at home.