chance we lose to UCF.

While BYU's rushing performance against Texas was an anomaly, let's not forget that Taysom threw 30-something % that game. That's not happening again this year. We also kicked 4 FGs that game, so the score wasn't even as lopsided as it should have been. With an improved oline, more athletic receivers, etc. and I think BYU will be solid offensively. An improved secondary should make it more difficult for Texas to repeat the few TDs they did score last year. Factor in growing pains under Coach Strong for Texas, David Ash still hasn't fully recovered from the concussion we gave him (and they don't have a solid back up), and the fact that for some reason we just do well against them (only loss was by 1 point with a Jake Heaps-lead team), I think there's ~40% chance we win that game. One additional note is Texas didn't have a single player drafted for the first time in decades, and while they always bring in top recruiting classes, it'll be their second game as Freshmen whoever they bring in.

UCF on the other hand... They return 10 starters on defense, a defense that beat Baylor (the most prolific offense in CFB last year) in a BCS bowl last year. True, Baylor still put up 42 points, but that was 10 points below their season average. While they lost their starting QB/RB combo, they still bring back 6 starters on offense. Then you factor in the fact that it is a Thursday game on the east coast... I actually think this will be the most difficult game of the season, not Texas.