I'm operating under a couple of assumptions:

1. We beat all of the teams we are discussing.
2. From a SOS and perception standpoint Texas, Virginia, and Cal all matter much more to us than any of these teams.

IMO, no matter what UCF does against Houston it won't change anything about viewership for our game. A 2-2 UCF vs. a 1-3 UCF is negligible. They are still a non P5 team and lost to all the P5 teams on their schedule. Combine that with the NFL and baseball playoffs, nobody is watching this game.

If UCF does manage to beat Houston, they still probably lose to ECU. As the committee and pollsters evaluate BYU, nobody is going to call beating a 8-4 UCF team a good win.

However, if Houston wins, they don't have to play ECU. They have the potential to go 10-2. That likely gets them nationally ranked and looks more impressive in hindsight for BYU.

For the BSU-Nevada game, you are absolutely correct that BSU is the bigger brand. But BSU has no chance to be ranked at the time of our game and the tv time and network is already set. Nevada on the other hand does have a slight chance to be ranked for our game and the tv hasn't been set yet. If Nevada can beat big bad BSU, that enhances our chances of getting that game on ESPN instead of ESPNU. Big difference in eyeballs between the two.