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Nov 29, 2014
4:41:32pm
Yes, oil is cyclical
Oil has about a 12 year boom and bust cyclical. It takes a while to find, drill and produce oil, so you keep producing as long as you do not fall below shut down price. Even then, you might reduce your exploration expenditures. Oil will probably overshoot its market-clearing price before it rebounds, and that can take a few years.

We know that the long-term trajectory of oil prices is up, because it is a non-renewable resource. Unless we dramatically drop consumption with new technologies, then oil prices will come back and when they do, they will again overshoot the equilibrium price before correcting once again.
AxelDC
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AxelDC
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