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Mar 6, 2015
1:44:10pm
Your ability to do simple math is admirable.
Your ability to think about the limited factors of Wrubell's stat and what it actually means in terms of late-game performance is where the critical thinking comes in.

First, go back and read indy coug's post, because that's what I was responding to. then, go ahead and read some other responses in the thread. like this one. http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=13795137. i'll concede he took the time to express the thought more eloquently than I did.

Then, go back and look at the games we've lost this year. look at how many we have had a good chance to win in the final 2 minutes. Without going back and looking i can tell you that BYU has not lost a game by double-digits. I think the most is 7 or 8 points. So that's 8 fairly close games they've lost this year.

with the exception of gonzaga at home, they've been pretty much in every game they've lost at the end. That speaks well of our team. But they blew it against SDSU (hold onto a stinking rebound), a couple of times (i.e. in regulation, and then in OT). They blew it against Purdue. They blew it against the Torerros.

I haven't gone back to look at all of these, but that's my memory. I think at least one of the Pepperdine losses was close at the end with a chance to win. A few in the 2013-14 season as well. Oregon game. Stanford game. (here's another one: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=13795908). If my memory's wrong on these, fine.

I like GW's stat, but it could be very misleading in terms of late-game success given what you called its "esoteric criteria." what about games in which they were tied at 3:00? 1:00? games in which they took the lead with 30 secs to go? or games where 2 FTs or a layup in the last 30 secs would have given them the win? OT games?

And, losing games to vastly inferior teams that are still within a few points either way, especially at home, is still "blowing it". See Pepps, and USD. If we win those games, we are punching our tickets to the dance. that is blowing it, in itself.

To me, the inherent limitations of that particular stat are pretty obvious given the nature of our 8 losses this year. it's a nice stat, but it doesn't prove that BYU has had great late-game management THIS YEAR. I'm not calling for Rose's head to point out that late-game management and mental errors by players in key winnable games could potentially cost this much-improved team a tournament bid.

Being a fan doesn't mean you have to lash out at anything anyone else says that is even mildly critical.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Mar 6, 2015 at 1:44:10pm
Message modified by yahtzee on Mar 6, 2015 at 1:45:24pm
yahtzee
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