Background:

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2010/09/Issue-244/College-Football-Preview/ESPN-BYU-Agree-To-Eight-Year-TV-Deal-For-Home-Football-Games.aspx

ESPN and Brigham Young Univ. yesterday announced an eight-year agreement that gives the net exclusive rights to BYU home football games during the '11-18 college football seasons. ESPN has an option to extend the agreement through '19. ESPN receives first selection rights to all BYU home games and any neutral site matchup where BYU is the designated home team.

....

Financial terms were not disclosed, but sources indicated that BYU "could reap between $800,000 and $1.2 million per home game -- considerably more" than the $1.3-1.5M the school "earned annually from the Mountain West's television arrangement."

Both these links to future schedules confirm four high-profile home games in 2019 (though there are some other discrepancies on dates/away opponents):

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-19/2019-byu-cougars-football-schedule.php

http://www.loyalcougars.com/future-football-schedules/

USC

Washington

Utah

Boise Sate

No matter who else is added for home games 5 and 6, that's going to be THE BEST home schedule BYU has EVER had.

And don't think that ESPN hasn't noticed.  Heck, it's even very likely that ESPN has had a hand in crafting this schedule during the final/option year on this contract.  They are getting those games "on the cheap" by only paying ~$1M/game.  That's an absolute steal for ESPN...

Now we know (largely thanks to Cinci Dude's... C. Austin Green ... crazy-wrong tweets) that ESPN's deal with BYU has an "out clause" if we get invited to a P5 conference.  http://www.sltrib.com/sports/3988841-155/scott-d-pierce-espn-deal-wont

Neither ESPN nor the BYU has ever released all the details of their contract. We know ESPN guarantees the Cougars an annual minimum of three home games on ESPN, ESPN2 or ABC and one game on ESPNU; and that the contract runs through 2018 (with an ESPN option to extend it through 2019).

We're still guessing what it pays — reportedly something between $800,000 and $1.2 million per game.

But speculation that BYU can't get out of that contract is wrong. I've asked ESPN executives about that on multiple occasions. They've always declined to answer directly, but have also made it clear BYU can do what is best for BYU — and that ESPN respects that.

Not to mention that it would make absolutely zero sense for the former football coach to actively campaign to join the Big 12 and the current athletic director to speak publicly about BYU's desire to join a P5 conference if the Cougars could not extricate themselves from their current TV deal, if necessary.

So, no, that TV contract would not be an impediment to joining a conference...

So the deal won't keep us from accepting an invite, but one also has to think that ESPN iself would NOT be an ADVOCATE for anything that would end their contract with us before that year, right?  

I know some of those games would have to be cancelled if we got into the Big12, but the remaining games hold more value upon renegotiation than the current $1M/game price tag  ESPN has.  

The ultimate irony here is that I remember two distinct themes being touted here as pro-BYU expansion points around the early months/years of Conference Realignment:

1) Texas/ESPN came to BYU to check out BYUtv and see how to set up a school network ... all in preparation to set up the LHN.  Many touted that this would indeed get us on UT's "good list" when it came time for the Big12 to expand.  This may go down as one of those "no good deed will go unpunished" moments in BYU sports history.  Texas has been the one rallying the anti-expansion drumbeat from day one through this entire CR saga.  Figures.

and

2)  Our contract with ESPN proves our value and makes us more attractive expansion candidate, and that ESPN would "vouch for us" when it came to our TV/fanbase value.  They may do just that, but only after wringing every last cent out of the current contract.

I try to avoid being one of those negative "Debbie-Downer" BYU fans, but sometimes it seems there may be some truth to the cynical "First rule of BYU fandom":  Nothing good ever happens to BYU.

 I guess I still hold out some degree of hope for expansion in light of Trotter's and Carlton's Tweets last week that expansion discussions are ongoing and some still peg the likelihood of expansion at over 50%.  

Personally, I don't think it's that high anymore, but we're not into Lloyd Christmas range yet either.