Optimistic

BYU's Rushing Game

On offense, BYU is good at running the ball overall (#13) and at staying ahead of the down (#27).  They're bad in short yardage situations (#98).

Boise's Lack of Havoc by linebackers and defensive backs

Their DL is good at causing havoc (#31), but the linebackers (#108) and secondary (#96) are both bad.

Pessimistic

BYU's Pass Defense

On defense, BYU is mediocre overall (#64), terrible at staying ahead of the down (#114), and mediocre at preventing big plays (#78). The team is above average at getting to the QB (#55). On passing downs, BYU's defense is terrible (#100).

Boise's Run Defense

On defense, Boise is elite at stopping the run overall (#4) and staying ahead of the down (#16). However, they tend to give up big plays (#102) and they're bad at stopping teams in short yardage situations (#110)

Yeah, I know...optimistic--BYU is good at running...pessimistic...Boise is good at stopping the run. Boise has an elite passing attack. BYU needs to run the ball effectively to stay in the game (e.g., keep Boise's offense off the field, protect the defense, and churn the clock), but I think that BYU has a real opportunity in the short-to-mid range passing game.  Boise's linebackers and secondary don't cause mistakes and don't give up big plays--it's the epitome of a bend-but-don't-break defense.  Boise's pass defense is only great in passing down situations (#9).  BYU needs to run the ball effectively on 1st down or 2nd down and mix in some dink and dunk action the rest of the way.