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Sep 13, 2017
8:55:40am
Random Walk All-American
BYU vs Wisconsin by the numbers

BYU according to the five factors as of 9/11/2017

Efficiency
Offense #114 (last year #119)
Defense #96 (last year #58)

Explosiveness
Offense: #111 (last year #37)
Defense #26 (last year #43)

Field Position
Offense: #85 (last year #14)
Defense: #93 (last year #4)

Finishing Drives
Offense: #99 (last year #79)
Defense: #29 (last year #25)

Turnover Margin: #79 (last year #7)

Rush Offense/Defense
On offense, BYU is bad at staying ahead of the down (#108) and big plays (#76).  BYU's offensive line is bad at creating opportunities (31.2% of runs go for at least 5 yards, #111). They're bad at running the ball in short yardage situations on 3rd or 4th down (#112) and average at not getting tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage (#59).  The rushing attack is terrible.

On defense, BYU is bad at staying ahead of the down (#100) and really good at limiting big plays (#15). BYU's defensive line is above average at stopping the opposing OL from creating opportunities (44.4% of runs go for at least 5 yards, #116).  They're good at stopping the run in short yardage situations on 3rd or 4th down (#39), but generally bad at stopping the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage (#108). Last year, BYU had an elite rush defense--this year it's terrible.

Pass Offense/Defense
On offense, BYU is bad staying ahead of the down (#101).  The team is terrible at generating big plays in the passing game (#114).  The team does an average job of protecting Tanner (#60).  On passing downs, the team is terrible at staying ahead of the down (#116).

On defense, BYU is bad at staying ahead of the down (#80), and average at preventing big plays (#61).  The team is bad at getting to the QB (#108).  On passing downs, BYU's defense is below average (#70) at staying ahead of the down.

Offensive footprint
BYU runs 46.9% of the time on a standard down (e.g., 1st down, 2nd and 7 or fewer, 3rd and 4 or fewer) (#111) and runs 30.9% on passing downs (e.g., 2nd and 8, 3rd and 5) (#66).  BYU's pace is slow (#114).  BYU is bad at breaking tackles (82.6% of tackles are solo).

Defensive footprint
Teams run 62.6% of the time on standard downs (#50) and run 39.1% of the time on passing downs (#39). BYU's defense is terrible at causing havoc overall (#112). When looking at havoc by each position, the defensive line is average (#57), the linebackers are below average (#82), and the secondary is terrible (#126). BYU's secondary isn't very aggressive because only 28.1% of passes were intercepted or defended.

Last year, the linebackers were elite (#5 overall) and the defensive line (#85) and secondary (#108) were terrible. Last year BYU's secondary was very aggressive (39.9% of passes were intercepted or defended, #9)

Summary
The summary is going to be pretty obvious. BYU's defense has digressed in terms of getting teams off the field in regular drives and in causing turnovers. The offense can't sustain drives. The passing game was terrible last year too--but BYU is really missing Taysom and Jamaal because of how they ran the ball last year.

Note: I compared to the prior year because detailed S&P+ stats weren't available for prior weeks. In the future, I'll do week over week comparisons.


Wisconsin according to the five factors as of 9/11/2017

Efficiency
Offense #43 (last year #106)
Defense #12 (last year #11)

Explosiveness
Offense: #37 (last year #50)
Defense #91 (last year #27)

Field Position
Offense: #61 (last year #19)
Defense: #82 (last year #19)

Finishing Drives
Offense: #41 (last year #86)
Defense: #28 (last year #10)

Turnover Margin: #63 (last year #7)

Rush Offense/Defense
On offense, they're good at running the ball and staying ahead of the down (#49) and really good at developing big running plays (#17). They don't get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (#18).

On defense, they're elite at keeping offenses behind the down (#13) and they're average at stopping big running plays (#64). They don't make tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage (#78).

Pass Offense/Defense
On offense, they're above average at staying ahead of the down (#50) and at generating big plays (#51).

On defense, they're elite at staying ahead of the down (#15) and terrible at minimizing big plays (#103).

Offensive Footprint
They typically run the ball on standard downs (70.1%, #24) and they're slow (#97).

Defensive Footprint
They're great at causing havoc (#8) because they have great linebackers (#1) and defensive backs (#13). Their defensive line is terrible at causing havoc (#127).

Summary

This is a really good football team with a solid offense and an elite defense. If the defense does have a weakness, then it's the tendency to give up big plays--which is an area where BYU really struggles. A win on Saturday would arguably be the biggest win in LES history (based on the spread).

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Sep 13, 2017 at 8:55:40am
Message modified by Random Walk on Sep 13, 2017 at 8:56:53am
Message modified by Random Walk on Sep 13, 2017 at 8:57:27am
Message modified by Random Walk on Sep 13, 2017 at 8:57:54am
Random Walk
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