You need to replace Mississippi State with utah in the "next most likely" category -- it will be tougher to beat them on the road than to beat utah in Provo. For this category, I don't think we will win all three -- I think we likely win 2 out of 3.

In the toughest grouping, of Mississippi St, Wisconsin, and LSU, we're underdogs in all three. It will be good if we can win one, which could get us to the 10 wins you mention (assuming we win 2 of 3 in the prior group). I think we're more likely to lose all 3 of these, than to win 2 out of the 3.

So, would put our over/under at 9 1/2 wins.