With their "matchup predictor" - see link below

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=252&year=2017

I'm not sure how the matchup predictor works, but I found it interesting, even if I couldn't dig up much info about the methodology and accuracy. It'll be interesting to see how the % changes after week 1.

BYU 2017 ESPN Matchup Predictor

W - PSU - 98.3%
L - @LSU - 13.5%
W - UTAH - 66.4%
L - WIS - 25.2%
W - @USU - 82.3%
W - BSU - 64.0%
L - @MISS ST - 28.1%
W - @ECU - 71.2%
W - SJSU - 90.9%
W - @FRES - 84.3%
W - @UNLV - 84.5%
W - UMASS - 93.5%
W - @HAW - 78.5%

Final Record: 10-3


Low Probability: LSU (13.5), WIS (25.2) MISS ST (28.1)
Favored but Close: UTAH (66.4), BSU (64)
Probable: ECU (71.2), HAW (78.5)
High Probability: PSU, USU, SJSU, FRES, UNLV, UMASS


Utah 2017 ESPN Matchup Predictor

W - NDakota - 96.5%
L - @BYU - 33.6%
W - SJSU - 88.4%
L - @ARIZ - 39.4%
L - STAN - 21%
L - @USC - 10.1%
W - ASU - 52.5%
L - @ORE - 15.3%
L - UCLA - 28.2%
L - WSU - 28.3%
L - @UW - 7.4%
L - COLO - 44.0

Final Record: 3-9 (1-8 Conf.)

Low Probability Games: STAN (21.0), USC (10.1), ORE (15.3), UCLA (28.2), WSU (28.3), UW (7.4)
Underdog but Close: ARIZ (39.4), COLO (44.0)
Favored but Close: ASU (52.5)
High Probability: N.Dakota (96.5), SJSU (88.4)

Others:
WISCONSIN - 12-0 (Heavily Favored/Probable in ALL games)
LSU - 9-3 OR 11-1 ….. UF (49.4), AUB (46.2), ALA (20.2)
BSU - 8-4, 9-3 or 10-2…..SDSU (45.9), CSU (48.9)
MISS ST - 6-6 or 7-5 - ARK (47.1%)

NY6 Potential even with 2 losses?

With close losses to LSU and WISC, it seems like we could still be in good shape. If LSU goes 11-1 or 10-2 and WISC goes 12-0 and we are able to upset MISS ST and hold off Utah and BSU (as predicted), BYU sitting at 11-2 with close losses to two top 10 teams (if not WISC being at No. 1) — what are the chances BYU could get into a NY6? I think at the very least, BYU would be ranked in the top 15 if not lurking outside the top 10 at seasons end. If BSU can get to 9-3 or 10-2 and MISS ST. can get to 7-5 or even 8-4 (do-able for MSU), that’s a solid post-season resume.

Should BYU beat LSU and lose to WISC and then win out (or vice versa), I think BYU could still compete for a Playoff spot (at the very least seriously be in the conversation).


OVERALL

I think this matchup predictor breakdown is pretty accurate, at least from the BYU perspective. I see the "probable" 8 wins as being a bare-minimum expectation with this schedule, 10 wins as satisfactory, and 11 to 12 wins as being EXCEPTIONAL (but unusually do-able)! If BYU goes 10-3 and beats the Utes, I would consider this a very successful season and as of now I predict that's what will happen.

For the Utes, they are projected to finish last in the P12, with their only win vs. ASU favored by just 2.5%. I predict they will get a few more W's than is projected, and they finish 6-6.

GAME WEEK - GO COUGS!!