Sep 25, 2017
11:23:57pm
11:23:57pm
Also, any win probability is halved by the fact that you play to tie
If you go for the TD first, you leave open the possibility for a win in regulation (however remote that is, it’s worth something in win probability).
If you kick the FG first, at best you can tie in regulation, which would be something like a 45%* chance at a win after factoring in ties, if you even get it there.
* No idea what this number is. Made it up.
If you kick the FG first, at best you can tie in regulation, which would be something like a 45%* chance at a win after factoring in ties, if you even get it there.
* No idea what this number is. Made it up.
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