University Presidents that negotiate and make those decisions not conference commissioners, coaches or ADs. The Presidents want guaranteed income for the conference to be split equally among all schools. Yes a 26 team would funnel millions that currently go to bowls back into universities, the the BIG and SEC aren't going to get more than the number 3 conference and ND unless they break off completely.
The NIL is an interesting observation. That could be dictated by where corporations are HQed. The Bay Area and Seattle would be huge for that, although most of the Seattle companies have other HQs as well. Portland would not be in that mix, no SLC or Denver....PHX could be and Dallas was obviously the big miss. The BIG could have invited TX and OU and they would have jumped all over it.