I buy much of this. They get the game in Provo 100%, and the nuetral field game. So the 3 year deal gives ESPN minimum of 2 games people will show interest in. Plus, ESPN has the Big 10, Big East and PAC-12 now locked down, they could carry all 3 games. The scenarios make sense for sure.
SEC will not happen though, unless ESPN gets the game. They have no incentive to schedule for CBS.