My original message:
"I think staying in the #4 spot is as likely as just about anything else."
I then clarified by writing
"I think it's more likely that the Jazz pick at #4 than at #30."
You exclude scenarios that don't involved trades. I don't.
The #4 pick is far more likely than the #20 pick or the #12 pick.
If we exclude all scenarios that are less likely than the #4 pick, you're right.
Also, I'm taller than everyone who is shorter than I am.