Illinois State who is exactly 1-1 against the top 50 and has 2 sub-100 losses (1 sub-200) appears to be on the right side of the bubble right now. Wichita State is 1-3 against the top 50 and has no bad losses with an SOS of 151. They're being projected possibly as high as an 8 seed. Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Kansas State, and TCU all currently have losing conference records and double-digit losses and there's a good chance 2-3 of them get in. Lots of people are starting to project a 15-13 Vanderbilt as getting in.

In a normal year you may be right in your assessment. But with how this season is playing out those 4 bad losses are likely the difference between getting in and being left out.