Week 1: Home against Portland State

- FCS team that has shocked a team or two in FBS, most notably 9-4 Washington State back in 2015. Zone read offense and 4-3 defense. Finished 2016 with a record of 3-8. Lost to both FBS foes faced in San Jose State (66-35) and Washington (41-3). Also lost to recent BYU FCS opponents SUU (45-31) and Weber State (14-10).

First game for BYU before a gauntlet stretch to follow. BYU will win because: FBS vs FCS.

BYU 52 PSU 10

Week 2: Neutral against LSU

- Offense: I have had the chance to watch LSU's starting QB Danny Etling since he was playing for the rival high school in town. Wasn't impressed then and shocked now that LSU is in the position to have to play him as their starting QB--particularly with his history of back problems. Five of LSU's top 6 receivers from a year ago are also gone. An average-at-best QB, a bunch of unproven receivers, a somewhat re-tooling offensive line (both OT starters return but C will be manned by a starting guard from 2016 and both G starters will be new), and a brand new offensive coaching staff? Don't expect the passing game to be lights out.

The passing game will rely on play-action from a developed running game. Derrius Guice at running back will be the top offensive player on the field for either team. As a freshman, he was the changeup/fill in for Leonard Fournette in 2016. LSU averaged 6.1 yards per rush, but Guice was averaging a whopping 7.6 per rush! The key to stopping LSU is simple: get them to 3rd and long. Force Etling to keep the ball in his hands. The more he is able to just turn around and give the ball to Guice, the better off LSU will be.

- Defense: LSU runs a hybrid 3-4 similar to what BYU used to do when we had Van Noy at one of the OLB positions. Their starting NT returns, but both DE starters will be new. All three projected DL starters will be big averaging over 300 pounds. They will be called upon to take up blockers and allow their "Buck" OLB Arden Key to wreak havoc. Key is 6'6" (loser), 238, strong as an ox and quick as a hiccup. He will be the best defensive player on the field for either team. One other LB starter returns as well as 1 S and 1 CB. Those six lost starters from a year ago? They joined Arden Key in forming the top seven tacklers on LSU's defense in 2016. There are talented, but new faces that will need to step up in order to maintain a top ten defense like they had a year ago.

Will BYU devote 7-8 guys to stopping the run and play man in pass defense? Or will they sit in a zone to keep the speed in front of them like they did against Mississippi State last year? Can Orgeron prove he can be a good head coach (10-25 at Ol' Miss) instead of just a great interim one (6-2 at USC and 6-2 at LSU)?

BYU will win because they will be able to limit LSU's success on the ground with an always stout front 7 that includes the best LB corps since 2012. And BYU actually boasts a defensive backfield that can go man-for-man against LSU receivers still working to get in sync with Etling in a new offense. Arden Key is great, but there are not any other superstars on this defense that will face the best BYU OL in over a decade that will set the tone in the run game and give Mangum time in the pass game.

BYU 20 LSU 9