A team ranked 44 could beat a 20-40ish team at home.
A team ranked 44 could also lose to a 70-80ish team on the road.
I feel good about 3 wins, but everything after that gets crazy.
Those 4 mid-level road games will be tough. BYU will be beat up by October and even going 3-1 in those 4 will probably be tough.
Then there's the 5 hard games (with 4 at home). What's the best we could hope for here? 2-3?
So, yeah. 7-5 sounds about right, but maybe we get lucky.