order of the probability of losing them, taking into account things like home vs away, schedule order, probable weather, and how well BYU matches up, as well as the toughness of the opponent.

As for Ole Miss, they finished 2-10 the year we beat them on the road, 0-8 in the SEC, and we barely squeaked by them, 14-13. And their 1 win over an FBS team was vacated later. That was a terrible team, much worse than I expect Tennessee to be. It was also the first game of the season, so Bronco had had all offseason to prepare; this time we have to play utah before we can start prepping for the Volunteers. BYU finished 10-3 that year, so I’m not sure I agree that this year’s BYU team will be better than that team.

I actually think the 2011 Ole Miss game is a great example of how hard it is for us to beat an SEC/Deep South team on the road in early September, even when they are awful.