Per the Massey rankings they are currently 91st compared to BYU at #69.
USF is ranked 96th and Toledo is 99th. With QB issues (Romney is still a 3rd string walk-on who used two trick plays for his TD passes) and BYU's tendency to play to the perceived level of the competition, BYU could definitely lose this game.
UMass is awful at #129 and may be worse than Idaho State.