I think this is the only way BYU gets in a conference with any PAC schools.

tl;dr here's the synopsis:

1. PAC without CA schools would have to seriously consider BYU. They could stay at 8 teams and they'd be a notch above the MWC but not that much. BYU is a good option for them in that situation. If I'm at BYU I don't take that option.

2. CA schools would like other teams to play. BYU is a good choice. This is the option I would pursue at BYU.

3. Big12 has repeatedly pursued the AZ schools and Colorado. That opens all sorts of potential doors for BYU. Either to the Big12 or with the CA schools or with the PAC leftovers.


USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Fresno, SJSU, SDSU start the new system.

Oregon and OSU stick with the California schools, UW and WSU have nowhere to go. There's no way those schools join the MWC or some combination with previous MWC schools. I suppose OU and UW could try to move to the B1G but that's a bridge too far. And if they do WSU and OSU defintely go with the California schools in that situation unless those states prohibit it. I don't see those states doing that as it relegates OSU and WSU to the MWC.

AZ/ASU/UC/Utah all decide whether to go to the Big12 or stick together as the PAC with the CA schools and allow players to get paid or try to maintain P5 status with the Oregon and Washington schools (I don't see that happening). If they try to continue the PAC without the CA schools I think they try to add two out of BYU, BSU, and UNLV.

BYU should go with the CA schools in this situation no matter what. The only schools that really matter in the west are USC and UCLA. I think Utah sticks with the CA schools if BYU does. They can't risk losing Utah or California athletes. And they lose all of that if they can get paid at BYU and the CA schools but not at Utah. The same goes for UNLV, UNR, and Hawaii.

Hawaii needs CA schools for other sports. UNR and UNLV can't recruit without CA.

So in large part it comes down to UA and ASU. If they stick with the CA schools and no other states adopt the olympic model the west adopts that model entirely, if not and they go to the Big12 with Colorado and/or Utah things would get tricky and open a door for BYU to join the CA schools.

Best case scenario is the old PAC8 + SJSU, Fresno, SDSU + BYU.

USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Fresno, SJSU, SDSU and BYU would be awesome as well though.

More likely is Hawaii, UNR, UNLV join. If BYU joins I think Utah, USU, and Boise are a sure thing and probably some other MWC stragglers join up.

UA and ASU are sort of the hinge. If Utah goes with Colorado and the AZ schools to the B12 (or try and stick with the PAC w/o the CA schools) and BYU goes with the CA schools, Utah sports tank quickly as all the athletes want to get paid and Utah can't effectively recruit either Utah or CA in that situation.

Regardless of whether you're for or against this, it would be really interesting to see how recruiting would go in that situation. I would have loved it if California passed the law to take effect in January just to see the chaos. Can the CA schools recruit the south and Texas? Eventually they will. Stanford + money. That's not a difficult choice.