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Nov 18, 2019
2:08:40pm
Doctor Rosenrosen All-American
Aside from their game against BYU, I haven't watched a down of Utah football
this year. But based solely on game scores, it seems like this is, at worst, their second best team ever (better than their 2008 team but maybe not their 2004 team, although they look to be deeper and better defensively than that team).

Looking at the scores, their defense may be as good as any team in the country (man, it hurts to type that). In view of that, I think they're capable of hanging with any opponent, provided they don't get down too far early, as they don't seem to be built to come from behind (at least against top competition). So, for example, even against an LSU, Ohio St., or Clemson, I think they'd have a chance to make a game of it, provided they didn't fall behind by much early (in which case, it could get ugly for them).

Put another way, if Utah were to play any of those teams in the CFP, they'd probably either get blown out or be in a low scoring game that they'd have about a 50% chance of winning. The odds of the latter scenario are probably almost as good as the former. So they probably have something like a 20-25% chance of beating any of those teams on a given day.

Against most other teams in the country (especially, anyone outside of the SEC not named Ohio St. or Clemson), I'd give them at at least about a 50% chance to win. So, assuming they play Oregon in the Pac12 championship, I give them at least a coin flip's chance of winning (again, the key for them is not getting behind early).

And, if Utah and Oregon both win out until that game (which seems pretty likely at this point), the winner probably has something like a 1 in 3 chance of making the CFP, becauses even if the SEC doesn't play out their way (i.e., Auburn beats Alabama and LSU beats Georgia), Ohio St. or Clemson could trip up (for example, even though Ohio St. has looked unstoppable, they still have to get through Penn St., Michigan, and the Big10 championship, and if one of those games is at least close, they might choke, as they haven't been in a close game this year).

Basically, I'd give Utah the following odds the rest of the year:
Winning out the regular season: 95% (although I'd laugh hysterically if this didn't happen)
Winning the Pac12: 48%
Playing in the Rose Bowl: 48% (there's 2 ways this can happen: win the Pac12 but miss the CFP or lose the Pac12 championship game and Oregon makes the CFP)
Winning the Rose Bowl: 25%
Going to the CFP: 16%
Going to the championship game: 4%
Winning the championship: 1%

And, while you may ask why a BYU fan would spend so much time writing about Utah, it's been somehow cathartic for me to do so.

P.S. Hopefully, this season is a major outlier for them and not the start of a significantly higher baseline (otherwise, barring some total fluke game, we're not beating them for a very looooooong time).
Doctor Rosenrosen
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Doctor Rosenrosen
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Oct 31, 2003
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Apr 26, 2024
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Related Threads Topic: BYU fans who think Utah doesn’t deserve CFP discussion aren’t watching Utah game ((Private), Nov 17, 2019 at 7:12am)

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