Of Utah’s non FCS opponents, only NIU was ranked that low. Even UCLA, Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona were ranked 58, 59, 68 and 72.
BYU lost the rivalry game and beat both NIU and Idaho State. Getting USC in LA probably makes that a loss and UW in Seattle gets even uglier. So that’s 2-3 against teams BYU actually played this year.
I would guess BYU probably goes 3-4 against the other PAC teams ranked 26 (Wazzu) to 72 (Arizona), so that makes 5-7, plus or minus one game either way.