have to more seriously consider if they want to continue to fight against that.

In your scenario that qualification through ACC might be more difficult, I think that's incorrect. Even if ND joined the ACC and then took 2nd in ACC to Clemson, they still then have the opportunity to compete for the 2 at-large berths. So 2 bites at the apple.

With independence, they get just 1 bite at the apple - going for the 2 at-large spots.

Maybe ND's long term association with independence will cause it to maintain it, but even now they are earning less on their national TV deal than most other P5 teams get from their TV deals. I doubt they hold off forever if more and more power is conceded to the conferences.