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Jan 30, 2020
1:13:11pm
ReyOso Walk-on
We don't know the incidence rate yet. It's a novel virus.

And it's still in its exponential growth stage. If it isn't stopped soon, it will likely spread as far and wide as the typical flu based on infection rates. I'm not worried about catching the virus in January of 2020, I'm worried about April and May, when exponential growth could put it in 500 million people.

The only real questions are whether a.) it will be halted like SARS was, and b.) if the strength of the virus will attenuate with time. Illnesses become less dangerous, typically, as they go more widespread, given that an evolutionary strategy that kills the host is less effective than one that turns it into a big virus producing factory.

I'm sure that will be its ultimate fate, like the flu itself, which came in like a sledge hammer and has been gradually growing weaker with each pulse through the population. In the medium term, however, this could be nasty.

ReyOso
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ReyOso
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