Their remaining conference games are ASU (Net 40), Arizona (Net 7), and USC (Net 47).
Win 2 or 3 of those, plus at least one Pac-12 tournament game and I think they're in.
Keep in mind, their record over the last 11 games is 9-2. If they win out before the tournament, that'll be 12-2. That's quite a run against a solid schedule. Then win the 2nd round game (since they'll have a 1st round bye) and they're probably in. If they make it to the title game I think they're in for sure, especially if they win 2 of the next 3.