naively optimistic to assume that it will end up being less than 2%. As of yesterday, the best (but still incredibly flawed) estimate of CFR is 8.42% (see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome). That estimate is trending down, and so it's quite likely that the true CFR is lower than this, but we simply don't know what it is. We don't know, and the truth is we won't know probably for at least another two months.

If the CFR turns out to be in the 2%-3% range and the epidemiologists who say that it's too late to contain the virus are correct, then the world is in deep trouble. Even if the CFR is lower, the economic impact of a true pandemic would be enormous. Hopefully, the virus will be contained to only a few hundred thousand people. (This seems unlikely IMO, but I don't know anything.)