As it is with hurricanes. I remember people not taking hurricane Sandy seriously because hurricane Irene was sort of a dud the year before. We do not have the infrastructure in place to collect the data on something like this. It's like trying to predict the weather without satellites. I don't fault the epidemiologists for trying to do their job. This very well could be bad. However I think it could also turn out to be a false alarm. This paper demonstrates that the current death data would support that. It would also support a far graver picture.