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Mar 30, 2020
10:11:46am
boogers Intervention Needed
What's your threshold? That's really the question nobody is willing to commit

to.  So I will put something out there.

Shut down the economy to save 1-2 million lives?  Absolutely!  But for how long?

Assume doing nothing results in worst case scenario of 2 million deaths in the U.S., also assume that the very well established statistic  of 75% plus of deaths are 60+ years old (and skewed more with increases in age).

  • 9 month shutdown will do more damage than 2 million deaths (in other words, this will be worse than doing nothing).
  • 6 month shutdown will do more damage than 1 million deaths.
  • 3 month shutdown will do more damage than 300 thousand deaths
  • 2 month shutdown will do more damage than 100 thousand deaths.

"More damage" includes "economic" and "human" elements (if you actually think they are separate issues).  

Obviously, this is my subjective valuation for choices that do not really exist as it assumes there are only 2 options, shut everything down or do nothing.  Which is simply not a real decision set. 

It is discouraging there is not more discussion beyond the effects of isolating everyone or doing nothing.

I still contend some high level social distancing and strict hygene that allows for more normal commerce and travel with extreme isolation and restrictions for vulnerable populations (expecially >60 age group) would end up being more effective than the current apparent policy trajectories. 

Hopefully, after another month of current policies, the evident economic cost (which will become more evident is also a very real "human" cost) will drive more rational interventions.

 

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Mar 30, 2020 at 10:11:46am
Message modified by boogers on Mar 30, 2020 at 10:12:46am
Message modified by boogers on Mar 30, 2020 at 10:13:25am
Recategorized from Political Discussion to Health and Fitness by boogers on Mar 30, 2020 at 10:15:13am
Message modified by boogers on Mar 30, 2020 at 10:17:43am
Message modified by boogers on Mar 30, 2020 at 10:19:27am
boogers
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