Mar 31, 2020
11:34:32am
11:34:32am
Straight talk on how long social distancing will continue
Not posted as an endorsement, but I think it's important to hear some of the time frames now being mentioned by folks in public health as we work to define essential and reasonable measures.
From an Atlantic article "The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal":
• things can return to normal when enough of the population — possibly 60 or 80 percent of people — is resistant to COVID-19, either by development of a vaccine or by the disease working its way through the population. "Unfortunately, both of these paths could be a year or two long..."
• “Prematurely ending severe social distancing would be an incredible blunder that would have major human consequences...What is premature? It could be eight to 12 weeks.”
• a 1 to 2 month timeframe is considered very unlikely; it depends on the virus turning out not to be so dangerous after all
• a 3 to 4 month timeframe could allow widespread testing to identify the most effective preventive measures, and perhaps develop an effective treatment. "This wouldn’t eliminate the continued need for social distancing, since large-scale outbreaks would still be possible, but it could reduce the risk of overburdening the country’s hospitals."
• a 4 to 12 month scenario could allow distancing restrictions to loosen up over the summer and be reintroduced if a fall wave hits
From an interview with the CDC Director published today:
• He anticipates another wave in late fall/early winter when many Americans still are not immune. "Hopefully, we'll aggressively reembrace some of the mitigation strategies ... particularly social distancing."
• "We want the whole nation to stay all in, as the president announced the other day, to the end of April."
• "It is important that one size doesn't fit all, and there are parts of our country that will — when they have the data to know exactly how much virus is in their community — they may be able to make local decisions that begin to allow parts of the economy to open up."
• "I think you're going to see that analysis and that data be used to find that balance over the next four, six, eight weeks as our nation does come back to work."
From an Atlantic article "The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal":
• things can return to normal when enough of the population — possibly 60 or 80 percent of people — is resistant to COVID-19, either by development of a vaccine or by the disease working its way through the population. "Unfortunately, both of these paths could be a year or two long..."
• “Prematurely ending severe social distancing would be an incredible blunder that would have major human consequences...What is premature? It could be eight to 12 weeks.”
• a 1 to 2 month timeframe is considered very unlikely; it depends on the virus turning out not to be so dangerous after all
• a 3 to 4 month timeframe could allow widespread testing to identify the most effective preventive measures, and perhaps develop an effective treatment. "This wouldn’t eliminate the continued need for social distancing, since large-scale outbreaks would still be possible, but it could reduce the risk of overburdening the country’s hospitals."
• a 4 to 12 month scenario could allow distancing restrictions to loosen up over the summer and be reintroduced if a fall wave hits
From an interview with the CDC Director published today:
• He anticipates another wave in late fall/early winter when many Americans still are not immune. "Hopefully, we'll aggressively reembrace some of the mitigation strategies ... particularly social distancing."
• "We want the whole nation to stay all in, as the president announced the other day, to the end of April."
• "It is important that one size doesn't fit all, and there are parts of our country that will — when they have the data to know exactly how much virus is in their community — they may be able to make local decisions that begin to allow parts of the economy to open up."
• "I think you're going to see that analysis and that data be used to find that balance over the next four, six, eight weeks as our nation does come back to work."
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- korihor
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