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Mar 31, 2020
3:46:44pm
wcj99 All-American
What makes you think this investment would pay off in any form?

Old and gas stocks were lousy investments before coronavirus due to overproduction. The US is pumping so much oil that they are running out of places to put it. You have a significant slow down in demand due to coronavirus and then add the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia that doesn't appear as though it will end any time soon.

 

Consider the following data:

In the past 12 months the stock has dropped from around $70 per share to $37 per share.

Free cash flow in 2019 was $5.3 billion, but that was down from $16.4 billion in 2018, so cash flow was already under pressure before coronavirus and the price war.

The average price of oil in 2019 was $64 per barrel. Currently the price is just over $20 per barrel.

The stock would likely be lower if the the current dividend yield wasn't over 9%. Last year XOM paid $14.6 billin in dividends. Unless they were to decide to borrow in order to support the dividend, management will be forced to cut the dividend, which will hurt the stock further. They are already servicing $163 billion in debt, so I think it is unlikely that they will borrow more unless it is to maintain existing operations.

 

If you are looking for a place to invest right now, look for companies that have good cash flow and prospects that the cash flow will continue to grow as we come out of the present situation.

wcj99
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wcj99
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