Apr 1, 2020
12:58:13pm
12:58:13pm
No way to separate out the but-for cause from day to day variation using daily
data like that.
All you can use is the average. But we can use the daily average cases in years when we know there was no COVID as a control. If you assume yesterday was otherwise an average day, 10.9% of deaths yesterday were COVID related. That means COVID is now, on a day to day basis, likely the #3 killer in the United States, behind cancer and heart disease and ahead of general accidental deaths.
By next week it will almost certainly be the #1 cause of death in America on at least some days, assuming it hits 2,500 daily deaths as seems overwhelmingly likely at this point.
All you can use is the average. But we can use the daily average cases in years when we know there was no COVID as a control. If you assume yesterday was otherwise an average day, 10.9% of deaths yesterday were COVID related. That means COVID is now, on a day to day basis, likely the #3 killer in the United States, behind cancer and heart disease and ahead of general accidental deaths.
By next week it will almost certainly be the #1 cause of death in America on at least some days, assuming it hits 2,500 daily deaths as seems overwhelmingly likely at this point.
Originally posted on Apr 1, 2020 at 12:58:13pm
Message modified by jkccoug on Apr 1, 2020 at 12:58:36pm
Message modified by jkccoug on Apr 1, 2020 at 1:02:36pm
- New username
- Socrates Johnson
- Bio page
- jkccoug
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2002
- Last login
- Oct 13, 2021
- Total posts
- 0 (0 FO)
